2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle

Peer-to-peer (P2P) computing enables a group of computers to communicate directly with each other, and thereby share application resources (for example, CPU, storage, bandwidth, memory and files), rather than depending on interactions managed via central servers. This is certainly interesting for some applications, such as collaboration/instant messaging, content exchange and grid computing. However, its role in the centrally managed culture of most enterprises is still uncertain. It is likely to evolve into one of multiple architectural options in the future landscape of computing (for example, where developers can pick from multiple patterns of Web services, including server-to-peer / and server-to-server models).

Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) aims to provide mobile applications with some limited Internet functionality. WAP over Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) can, today, be considered a failure, as users experienced latencies that were too long in initiating sessions and a user interface that was too cumbersome. WAP (2.0) over general packet radio service (GPRS) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) may be a different story. It is not clear how WAP will compete with much simpler technologies such as Short Message Service (SMS), with more-mature technologies such as i-mode, and then with other approaches to Web access (for example, HTTP), as mobile devices get better multimedia capabilities. Nevertheless, WAP will remain the most-widely available, lowest common denominator for organizations that want to deliver mobile applications without controlling the handsets themselves.

E-payments are starting to gain a foothold in niche applications such as consumer-to-consumer payments in online auctions. The promise of using mobile phones as payment devices is also starting to emerge and will develop further as Bluetooth/infrared provide short-range wireless capabilities for the emerging generation of mobile handsets. Mass consumer adoption is still awaiting the backing of financial institutions with the clout to drive widespread retail deployment. Through 2005, e-payments will simply integrate online access to existing payment structures, such as credit and debit cards.

Climbing the Slope

Bluetooth, a technology for short-range wireless connectivity, has wide industry support and is finally becoming available in 2002, as vendors of notebooks, handhelds and consumer electronics devices have started to integrate it into their high-end products. Gartner expects more than 30 million chipsets to be shipped and chip prices to break the $5 barrier by YE02. Nevertheless, some security and interoperability issues remain, including interference with other devices in the 2.4 GHz band. Wireless LAN adoption also threatens to limit Bluetooth penetration in the PC area.