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1 Trigger to Peak
The Hype Cycle depicts the progression of technologies from inception and overenthusiasm, through a period of disillusionment to an eventual phase of maturity (see Figure 1). It highlights patterns of overreactions, typically originated by unrealistic expectations and reinforced by media effects. We examine the technologies emerging in 2002 and justify their position on the 2002 Hype Cycle, focusing on those in the early stages of the cycle. "2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle: Trough to Plateau" analyses the later stages. This Hype Cycle cuts across industries to generalize a technology's position. Technology planners should note that specific industries and geographic regions may be further ahead or behind in the cycle (for example, speech recognition for physicians is more mature than speech recognition in general).
On the Rise
Personal fuel cells are positioned to become an interesting alternative to batteries in the next five to 10 years. They are recharged with a hydrogen/oxygen mix, instead of needing to be connected to an electrical outlet, and a cell will last longer than a battery of the same size -- at least in theory. The industry is working to get them compact and inexpensive enough for mobile devices. By 2010, fuel cells will have gained 30 percent of market share for a wide array of mobile consumer electronic devices (0.6 probability).
Nanocomputing is the engineering of computing devices by manufacturing objects in a bottom-up atomic manner, rather than by shaping macroscopical quantities of material to obtain microscopical structures. However, despite some early success in the areas of materials and composites, nanotransistors will not start competing with silicon transistors until after 2010 (0.8 probability).
Identity services provide online users (Internet, mobile and, later, interactive TV) with unique user identifiers. These services -- pushed actively by Microsoft's Passport and the Liberty Alliance, led by Sun Microsystems -- aim to store personal information to facilitate electronic payment and single-sign-on functionality, so that users do not need to remember multiple passwords or have personal information stored with many different providers. However, consumer privacy concerns and fear of security flaws in software-only digital wallets mean that they are unlikely to be accepted before 2005 for buying valuable items or transmitting sensitive information. Demand may be greatly increased, if pay-per-view or pay-per-use business models for online content gain acceptance.
At the Peak
Biometric techniques confirm a person's identity based on physical or behavioral characteristics (for example, hand geometry, fingerprint, face, retina, iris, signature, gait, voice or keystrokes) that are hard to forge. Because of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, biometrics enjoyed a surge of recent attention in security applications such as physical access control, airport security and surveillance. Nevertheless, corporate adoption for network or PC access will continue to be slow, until mainstream computer manufacturers offer reliable biometrics embedded into hardware (such as mouse or laptop), and IT managers lose confidence in authentication based on single-factor user IDs or personal identification numbers. The complexity and privacy implications of biometric processing will continue to be another major roadblock to adoption through 2005.
Grid computing knits together geographically dispersed and distributed computers to create a single massive computing resource, with the aim of taking advantage of spare processing power. Popularized by the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), whose followers donate their idle PC cycles to support SETI's computer-intensive requirements, the concept is now being commercialized by a variety of large vendors (including Sun, Hewlett-Packard and IBM). It is interesting for enterprises that need vast amounts of inexpensive computing power for nonsensitive high-performance computing (HPC).
Web services are software components that can be invoked by Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) via HTTP and so allow modular business services to be delivered over the Internet when required. The ease of use will drive new software pricing and delivery models, and a more-dynamic competition. In the short term, the prospects for internal Web services for in-house application integration are much better than the prospects for external Web services, which still suffer from security and trust issues . Web services should be viewed as part of a long-term strategy to enable enterprises with a robust enterprise IT architecture to develop closer partner relationships. Web services in their different modes (in-house application integration, trusted partner integration and integration with anyone) are at different stages of the Hype Cycle (respectively, climbing out of the Trough of Disillusionment, in the bottom of the trough and still overhyped).
Bottom Line: Although aggressive, leading-edge organizations will typically adopt more technologies early in their life cycle than less-aggressive organizations: All organizations should consider early adoption of new technologies that support key business imperatives. Enterprises should avoid engaging into a technology just because it is at the Peak of Inflated Expectations or disengaging just because disillusionment has set in.
2 Trough to Plateau
We continue our examination of the 2002 Hype Cycle of emerging technologies with a look at technologies that have passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Compared with previous years, there are a large number of technologies in the Trough of Disillusionment, which reflects the surge of new technologies that entered the market during the investment boom of the late 1990s, but have failed to meet expectations. Some long-time trough residents, such as voice over IP (VoIP), are finally moving up the Slope of Enlightenment through real-world deployments. Others, such as wireless LANs, are graduating from the domain of advanced technology groups onto the Plateau of Productivity.
In the Trough
Peer-to-peer (P2P) computing enables a group of computers to communicate directly with each other, and thereby share application resources (for example, CPU, storage, bandwidth, memory and files), rather than depending on interactions managed via central servers. This is certainly interesting for some applications, such as collaboration/instant messaging, content exchange and grid computing. However, its role in the centrally managed culture of most enterprises is still uncertain. It is likely to evolve into one of multiple architectural options in the future landscape of computing (for example, where developers can pick from multiple patterns of Web services, including server-to-peer / and server-to-server models).
Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) aims to provide mobile applications with some limited Internet functionality. WAP over Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) can, today, be considered a failure, as users experienced latencies that were too long in initiating sessions and a user interface that was too cumbersome. WAP (2.0) over general packet radio service (GPRS) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) may be a different story. It is not clear how WAP will compete with much simpler technologies such as Short Message Service (SMS), with more-mature technologies such as i-mode, and then with other approaches to Web access (for example, HTTP), as mobile devices get better multimedia capabilities. Nevertheless, WAP will remain the most-widely available, lowest common denominator for organizations that want to deliver mobile applications without controlling the handsets themselves.
E-payments are starting to gain a foothold in niche applications such as consumer-to-consumer payments in online auctions. The promise of using mobile phones as payment devices is also starting to emerge and will develop further as Bluetooth/infrared provide short-range wireless capabilities for the emerging generation of mobile handsets. Mass consumer adoption is still awaiting the backing of financial institutions with the clout to drive widespread retail deployment. Through 2005, e-payments will simply integrate online access to existing payment structures, such as credit and debit cards.
Climbing the Slope
Bluetooth, a technology for short-range wireless connectivity, has wide industry support and is finally becoming available in 2002, as vendors of notebooks, handhelds and consumer electronics devices have started to integrate it into their high-end products. Gartner expects more than 30 million chipsets to be shipped and chip prices to break the $5 barrier by YE02. Nevertheless, some security and interoperability issues remain, including interference with other devices in the 2.4 GHz band. Wireless LAN adoption also threatens to limit Bluetooth penetration in the PC area.
VoIP is the transmission of voice conversations (phone-to-phone) over packet-switched IP data networks. Despite its long-promised cost savings, it is still at an early stage of commercialization and is primarily in the trial stage. This is largely due to a variety of prevailing risks, such as latencies, lack of quality of service, scalability issues and standards compliance. However, some major deployments are scheduled by YE02, and their success will determine the speed of VoIP into mainstream.
Entering the Plateau
Wireless LANs - also called WLANs, Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) and, in particular, 802.11b -- are experiencing unprecedented growth, as prices have declined significantly. The WLAN successor, 802.11a is "just around the corner" and presents major technological advantages over 802.11b networks: more speed and channels, and much less interference with other technologies. Enterprises are likely to begin broad deployment of 802.11a in 2003.
Virtual private networks (VPNs) are communications systems that use public networks to transport private intracompany and intercompany information. Although standards wars and problematic issues remain (over the IP Security protocol, specifically), whole industries, such as automotive, have moved to VPNs as the basis of extranets for e-business and other activity.
Bottom Line: Technology planners should focus on the value of a technology to their enterprise, rather than external media perceptions of the technology. Even if the Trough of Disillusionment generates negative media attention, planners who have not investigated a potentially high-impact technology at this stage should begin evaluation at this point, because most technologies do emerge from the trough, albeit at different speeds. For technologies that are of marginal impact, enterprises should wait until the technology is entering the plateau, as the additional risk of early adoption is not warranted.
Die vollständige Einschätzung der jungen Technologien ist bei der Gartner Group erhältlich.