Peter Houston, Microsoft's senior director of server strategy, says Microsoft will not give up the new licensing plan, although last month it extended some support provisions for NT Server 4.0 through 2004.Nor will it give away its software - as some analysts have speculated it will. But it is reasonable to speculate that if the company begins to feel enough pressure - from open source, from its customers, from the economy - it will respond. Most likely, Microsoft will simply drop its prices to meet or beat any perceived cost advantage that emerges from Linux and open source.

And that could mean that those who have taken the bet against the new licensing plan might wind up with something to show for their troubles.