Server Operating Systems Report

Market Analysis

Short-Term - 2002-2004

Butler Group expects that over the next three years we will see rapid penetration of Linux for file and print servers, either replacing NT operating systems on the same box, or as low cost replacements. Not having support from a vendor is a small issue, as file and print services are relatively simple operations, and seldom mission critical. Indeed, in Butler Group's opinion, there is no reason for even the smallest organisations not to start implementing and experimenting with Linux in order to gain the skills base and knowledge that will undoubtedly be needed in the next few years. The three proprietary processor-based UNIX offerings, HP-UX, AIX, and Solaris, will still be the systems of choice at the high-end.

Medium-Term - 2005-2008

Undoubtedly there will be consolidation in the Server Operating System market. This will be partly driven by the vendors themselves, as shown with the merger of Compaq and HP, which will see the planned eventual demise of the Tru64 UNIX operating system. Low-end UNIX will wither and be replaced by Linux in this period. Linux is also likely to have taken significant share from Windows. The high-end UNIX offerings will be facing significant challenge from .NET and a maturing Linux.