2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle

Web services are software components that can be invoked by Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) via HTTP and so allow modular business services to be delivered over the Internet when required. The ease of use will drive new software pricing and delivery models, and a more-dynamic competition. In the short term, the prospects for internal Web services for in-house application integration are much better than the prospects for external Web services, which still suffer from security and trust issues . Web services should be viewed as part of a long-term strategy to enable enterprises with a robust enterprise IT architecture to develop closer partner relationships. Web services in their different modes (in-house application integration, trusted partner integration and integration with anyone) are at different stages of the Hype Cycle (respectively, climbing out of the Trough of Disillusionment, in the bottom of the trough and still overhyped).

Bottom Line: Although aggressive, leading-edge organizations will typically adopt more technologies early in their life cycle than less-aggressive organizations: All organizations should consider early adoption of new technologies that support key business imperatives. Enterprises should avoid engaging into a technology just because it is at the Peak of Inflated Expectations or disengaging just because disillusionment has set in.